January 10 Storm Update - 3:30 PM

Graphic depicting latest forecast with another crest of Russian River at Guerneville at 32.4' on Thursday evening.

Published: January 10, 2023

The most up-to-date County emergency resources can always be found at SocoEmergency.org

RUSSIAN RIVER FLOODING

Goooood afternoon dear ones and happy Tuesday! I’m in Santa Rosa today for a Board of Supervisors meeting — which meant that when the latest NOAA forecast posted, I had to muster my best mom skills to mutter four-letter words silently in my head, rather than out loud.(If you haven’t yet seen, NOAA’s afternoon forecasts puts the River at 32.4’ on Thursday evening. So we’re back in possible-flood mode, albeit minor-flood mode.)

Like many of you, I felt hope and relief after the Russian River failed to reach flood stage overnight. And of course that moment is exactly when Mother Nature comes knocking on the door saying “we’re not done quite yet.” It’s looking like it might just be one of Those Winters — the ones where we flirt with flood stage repeatedly, always waiting with bated breath to see how much rain falls and when, and how the River rises and responds.

Earlier this morning, as the Board of Supervisors formally ratified a local disaster declaration for these winter storms, I noted that winter is far from over. We have at least another month and a half of potential flood season. In 1986, it was the Valentine’s Day flood that caused 500 folks to be airlifted from Guerneville to Santa Rosa — the flood of record, when the Russian River rose to 48.9 feet in Guerneville. The 2019 flood, the highest in recent years at 45 feet, hit at the end of February.

(Personally, I can’t wait for St. Patrick’s Day. Then I feel like I can enjoy the green hills without worrying what the River will do! I’m hoping that some longtime river resident won’t remember a St. Patrick’s Day flood and ruin my sense of safety.

)

WIND, ROADS & POWER

While we have certainly experienced storms that brought in more rain than our recent storm series, I’m hard pressed to remember other winter storms that packed such a punch with wind and lightning. And it’s the howling winds that have caused devastating damage to our electrical and road infrastructure, particularly on the North Coast.

While we have no direct authority over PG&E, we are continuing to advocate for North Coast service restoration and are specifically advocating for fire stations and key communication hubs. Unfortunately, several West County communities who’d just had service restored yesterday are back in the dark today due to damage from last night’s winds.

Here’s what we know about PG&E’s service restoration efforts:

PG&E currently has more than four dozen crews active in Sonoma County, including mutual aid crews from Idaho and Washington. As of yesterday afternoon there were over 160 separate storm-related outage incidents. Crews have repaired equipment and restored electric power associated with over 120 outages since Thursday, but new and additional outages have occurred which each subsequent storm.
Per PG&E representative Melinda Rivera, “Fallen trees in the Fort Ross and Monte Rio areas have created access and safety risks for our crews. We have seen multiple outages on the same circuits as newly repaired lines are damaged by additional trees that were knocked down by the continued stormy weather. As you may have seen in the news, there was a tragic incident this weekend involving members of our extended PG&E team. This contracted crew was travelling to perform tree work in support of electric restoration activities, to restore customers on the southern Mendocino coast and the northern Sonoma coast."

Community support center services are ongoing in Occidental, Guerneville, Bodega Bay, and Fort Ross. While we cannot turn your lights back on, we will continue to respond to your needs as best we can. Please email our awesome team at District5@sonoma-county.org if there’s anything we can do to help you.

PS: Please know that if you are a medical baseline customer, you are eligible for a battery backup to help power medical devices during this prolonged power outage. If you are having trouble securing this resource, please send us an email.

PPS: I’m really not sure why the 10-day probability posted by NOAA is so much lower than the deterministic and ensemble forecasts. If any meteorology or data geeks have any ideas, let me know!